Thursday, November 5, 2009

Gold and Forex Technical Update

Rupee : The Indian Rupee is unable to hold clear strength seems to be in range of 46.80 to 47.80 levels. Please note that dollar is in correction mode in overseas markets only if euro/usd breaks 1.4453 levels / gold breaks 990 dollars and crude breaks 70 dollars and dollar index breaks 78 levels in the global market a scenario of rupee weakness may occur again till then the view remains bullish for rupee. Exporters sell 47.50 plus levels. (USDINR - 47.14).Bullish to rangebound

Euro : Euro took a false break below 1.4650 levels and moved up breaking the crucial resistance of 1.4850 levels. Until we see a close above 1.4850 levels on a closing basis the bias is still neutral to bearish.Selling on upticks is advised around 1.4850 levels for a medium target of 1.4550 levels with stops close to 1.4930 levels.(EurUsd-1.4830).Neutral to Bearish

Sterling : The Sterling also held strong after touching the crucial support of 1.6270 levels benefitting from euro rally yesterday 1.6600 levels still remains crucial for pound.Technically a break of 1.66 in pound would indicate further bullish pressure towards 1.6700 area and may be higher. Immediate support at 1.6520/00 area. Break below that area should lead us again into the bearish territory. On fundamental side, investors focus is now on whether the BoE is going to expand the quantitative easing program. If that happen, Sterling should be under heavy pressure and technical bullishness might fail.(GBPUSD 1.6515) Bearish.

Yen : JPY is facing strong resistance at 91.50 levels.(Trendline resistance and 55 Daily EMA) . Only a break and hold 2-3 trading session above 91.50 levels.would change the bias of Yen to bearish otherwise still bullish to rangebound.Cautious selling around 91.50 - 91.80 levels keeping stoploss 92.30 and target of 89.50.( USDJPY -90.30) Bullish.

Aud : AUD bounced back from the weekly trendline support of 0.8915 levels as expected from the last few days but does not seem to maintain bullishness above 0.9120 despite a rate increase from Australia. It is having a strong falling trendline resistance at 0.9120 .If aud breaks this resistance and closes above then it Aud is bullish in medium term. (AUDUSD- 0.9077) Bullish.

Gold : Gold made yet another record high of $1097 yesterday. The No change in Fed's Rate Decision did bring some momemtum in gold and is now trading at $1086 levels. This shine in Gold can allow it test $1120 levels soon from where correction is expected.(GOLD $1088). Bullish.

Dollar Index :Dollar index came down from 76.80 levels to 75.75 levels currently. This sell off is due to no change in the release of interest rate decision yesterday but the strength of selling is so far mild. Some consolidations would be seen in the greenback and the index could retest 76.50 levels soon as long as 75.56 minor support is held (DI- 75.80).Rangebound

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