Daily FX Report

Good morning from Hamburg and welcome to the Daily FX Report. Today we will report about the US market and some other important details. Anyway, we wish you a successful trading week.

Markets review

The U.S. index of leading economic indicators rose for the fifth month and capping the longest stretch of gains since 2004 and signaling a recovery is under way. The economic outlook for the next half year rose 0.6% in August. The Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, means that the worst recession since the Great Depression has probably ended, notwithstanding the unemployment is rising and tight credits at the same time. That could be a reminder for a slower rebound. The USD climbed against the JPY and touched 92.53, this was the highest level since a couple of days. The USD fetched a gain of 0.2% and reached the level 1.4677 versus the EUR.

The EUR touched a five month-high against the GBP at 90.78. Also versus the USD, the GBP declined 0.3 percent to 1.6217. The leading European banks expect that the GBP will be the weakest currency in the G-10 universe over the next 6 to 12 month.

Technical analysis

AUD/NZD

Since the beginning of September, the AUD has been trading in a bearish trend. Now it is touching the lower Bollinger Band. Three times before, as the AUD touched the lower Bollinger Band, the price rebounded and could increase over the middle Bollinger Band. This could be a signal for a bullish counter movement. Also the RSI may indicate that the currency pair will rise again above the middle Bollinger Band

GBP/USD

Since the middle of September, the GBP has been trading in a bearish trend channel versus the USD. The GBP always recovered when it touched the bottom line and rose at least again after touching its long-term support at 1.6127. The crossing MACD may indicate a continued bullish trend, but it remains to be seen if the currency pair could cross the upper trendchannel line sustainable

Pivot Points - Daily FX Support and Resistance Levels

Forex Technical Analytics

EUR/USD

Current level-1.4732

EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4134 and 1.3523.

Although the pair dipped to 1.4611, the overall bias remained bullish and with the recent break above 1.4714 the uptrend was renewed, towards 1.4824. Intraday support comes at 1.4721, followed by the crucial 1.4703.

Resistance		Support
intraday	intraweek	intraday	intraweek
1.4764	1.4824	1.4721	1.4560
1.4824	1.50+	1.4703	1.3746

USD/JPY

Current level - 91.44

A short-term bottom has been set at 87.12 and a large consolidation is unfolding since. Trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 94.86 and 94.84.

Yesterday's rise peaked at 92.51 and the pair reversed, breaking below 91.64 support. The bias is negative again, for 90.99, en route to 90.12. Nearest resistance comes at 91.62, followed by the crucial 91.77.

Resistance		Support
intraday	intraweek	intraday	intraweek
91.62	93.40	90.99	88.64
92.51	101.45	90.12	87.12

GBP/USD

Current level- 1.6268

The pair is in a downtrend after peaking at 1.7042. Trading is situated between the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.6454 and 1.5258.

As expected, the minor consolidation below 1.6205 resistance was followed by a final spike low for 1.6111, which failed at 1.6140 and the pair reversed, entering a larger corrective phase towards 1.6401. Intraday resistance comes at 1.6296, nearest support is 1.6254, followed by the crucial 1.6220.

Resistance		Support
intraday	intraweek	intraday	intraweek
1.6296	1.6403	1.6254	1.6111
1.6403	1.7440	1.6189	1.5350

DeltaStock Inc. - Online Forex & Securities Broker

ENERGY MARKET RECAP

October Crude Oil closed down 2.56 at 69.48. This was 0.52 up from the low and 2.72 off the high.

October Heating Oil closed down 8.09 at 174.70. This was 0.49 up from the low and 8.10 off the high.

October RBOB Gasoline finished down 8.17 at 175.07, 8.58 off the high and 1.22 up from the low.

October Natural Gas finished down 0.17 at 3.61, 0.18 off the high and 0.08 up from the low.

Technical Outlook
CRUDE OIL (OCT) 09/22/2009: The close under the 60-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down. Stochastics are at mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken out. The market back below the 18-day moving average suggests the intermediate-term trend could be turning down. The defensive setup, with the close under the 2nd swing support, could cause some early weakness. The near-term upside target is at 73.27. The next area of resistance is around 71.09 and 73.27, while 1st support hits today at 67.86 and below there at 66.79.

RBOB GAS (OCT) 09/22/2009: The close below the 60-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has turned down. Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The close below the 18-day moving average is an indication the intermediate-term trend has turned down. The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the market on the defensive. The near-term upside target is at 186.71. The next area of resistance is around 179.97 and 186.71, while 1st support hits today at 170.17 and below there at 167.11.

HEATING OIL (OCT) 09/22/2009: The market back below the 60-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend could be turning down. Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The market back below the 18-day moving average suggests the intermediate-term trend could be turning down. The defensive setup, with the close under the 2nd swing support, could cause some early weakness. The next upside objective is 185.19. The next area of resistance is around 178.99 and 185.19, while 1st support hits today at 170.41 and below there at 168.02.

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP

December Gold closed down 5.4 at 1004.9. This was 7.7 up from the low and 1.9 off the high.

December Silver finished down 0.185 at 16.88, 0.095 off the high and 0.245 up from the low.

Technical Outlook
COMEX SILVER (DEC) 09/22/2009: Daily stochastics turning lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a downside break especially if near term support is penetrated. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside objective is now at 1635.0. The next area of resistance is around 1709.5 and 1727.0, while 1st support hits today at 1663.5 and below there at 1635.0.

COMEX GOLD (DEC) 09/22/2009: Daily stochastics turning lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a downside break especially if near term support is enetrated. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The market's close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is now at 991.6. The next area of resistance is around 1010.8 and 1015.5, while 1st support hits today at 998.8 and below there at 991.6.

CURRENCY MARKET RECAP

December US Dollar closed up 0.34 at 77.010. This was 0.310 up from the low and 0.325 off the high.

December Euro closed down 0.51 at 146.69. This was 0.59 up from the low and 0.43 off the high.

December Japanese Yen finished down 0.8 at 108.7, 0.89 off the high and 0.58 up from the low.

December Swiss finished down 0.37 at 96.89, 0.36 off the high and 0.58 up from the low.

December Canadian Dollar finished down 0.76 at 92.73, 0.92 off the high and 0.59 up from the low.

December British Pound closed down 0.75 at 161.96. This was 0.63 up from the low and 0.68 off the high.

Technical Outlook
JAPANESE YEN (DEC) 09/22/2009: Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The defensive setup, with the close under the 2nd swing support, could cause some early weakness. The next downside objective is now at 107.31. The next area of resistance is around 109.42 and 110.24, while 1st support hits today at 107.96 and below there at 107.31.
EURO (DEC) 09/22/2009: A crossover down in the daily stochastics is a bearish signal. Stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels are broken. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside objective is 145.65. The next area of resistance is around 147.22 and 147.68, while 1st support hits today at 146.21 and below there at 145.65.

STOCK INDICES RECAP

December S&P closed down 0.8 at 1060.2. This was 8.2 up from the low and 2.5 off the high. December S&P E-Mini finished down 0.75 at 1060.25, 2.5 off the high and 8.75 up from the low.

December Dow finished down 18 at 9715, 26 off the high and 45 up from the low.


Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (DEC) 09/22/2009: Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next upside target is 1069.42. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 1065.25 and 1069.42, while 1st support hits today at 1054.35 and below there at 1047.63.

S&P E-MINI (DEC) 09/22/2009: Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The near-term upside objective is at 1069.93. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 1065.87 and 1069.93, while 1st support hits today at 1054.63 and below there at 1047.44.
NASDAQ (DEC) 09/22/2009: Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The daily closing price reversal up is a positive indicator that could support higher prices. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The near-term upside target is at 1749.68. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 1740.12 and 1749.68, while 1st support hits today at 1714.88 and below there at 1699.19.

DOW (DEC) 09/22/2009: A bearish signal was triggered on a crossover down in the daily stochastics. Momentum studies trending lower from overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to reinforce lower price action. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The market's close below the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. The next downside target is now at 9621. The next area of resistance is around 9705 and 9749, while 1st support hits today at 9641 and below there at 9621.

BOND MARKET RECAP

December Bonds finished down 0-080 at 119-010, 0-300 off the high and 0-080 up from the low.

December 10 Yr Treasury Notes closed down 0-010 at 116-260. This was 0-020 up from the low and 0-190 off the high.

Technical Outlook
BONDS (DEC) 09/22/2009: Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside target is now at 118-030. The next area of resistance is around 119-230 and 120-140, while 1st support hits today at 118-180 and below there at 118-030.

10 YR TREASURY NOTES (DEC) 09/22/2009: Momentum studies trending lower at id-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The market's close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside target is now at 116-110. The next area of resistance is around 117-070 and 117-205, while 1st support hits today at 116-185 and below there at 116-110.