Monday, September 28, 2009

Forex Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

Current level-1.4622

EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4134 and 1.3523.

The recent break below 1.4611 confirmed, that a larger corrective phase is on the run from 1.4842, targeting 1.4444 support. Intraday bias is slightly positive towards 1.4653, where a reversal should be expected, for next leg downwards, to 1.4493.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.4801 1.50+ 1.4660 1.4611
1.4911 1.6040 1.4611 1.3746

USD/JPY

Current level - 89.53

A short-term bottom has been set at 87.12 and a large consolidation is unfolding since. Trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 94.86 and 94.84.

Recent break below 90.12 provoked a sharp sell-off towards 88.41, thus filling our target at 88.64 and currently the pair is in a corrective phase below 90.34, that should be followed by one more downward test of the 87.12 weekly low. Intraday bias is positive for 89.92 and 90.34 with a risk limit below 89.15. Current consolidation above 88.42 is expected to last minimum 4 trading sessions.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
89.92 93.40 89.12 87.12
90.34 101.45 88.42 83.53

GBP/USD

Current level- 1.5872

The pair is in a downtrend after peaking at 1.7042. Trading is situated between the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.6454 and 1.5258.

Friday's minor consolidation was limited to 1.6050 in its attempt to test the important break below 1.6110 and the downtrend was renewed, reaching local bottom at 1.5766. Current bias is corrective in nature and we expect 1.5915 to limit the upside for the next leg downwards, to 1.5352 weekly support.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.5912 1.6130 1.5766 1.5352
1.6030 1.7042 --- 1.50+

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Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

EURO

The Euro versus Dollar pair was able to form a bearish technical pattern, seen in the image above, with a neckline at 1.4615. We expect the pair to decline on the intraday and short term basis, targeting 1.4360 before extending declines towards 1.4275. The stochastic indicator is showing oversold signs, which may result in a slight upside correction to retest the above mentioned neckline before continuing the expected decline, which will remain as far as 1.4765 is intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4275 and the key resistance at 1.4845

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4135 remains intact with targets at 1.6000

Support: 1.4565, 1.4515, 1.4465, 1.4410, 1.4360
Resistance: 1.4615, 1.4700, 1.4755, 1.4790, 1.4845

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 1.4615 to 1.4500 and stop loss above 1.4705 might be appropriate.

GBP

The 23.6% correction limited further inclines for the pair, where it reversed to the downside to near the 38.2% correction for the bullish wave, seen in the image above. The short and medium term declines may face volatility near the current support at 1.5745, as momentum indicators show the possibility for a slight upside correction towards 1.5870 before reversing back to the downside towards 1.5555, as far as 1.6150 remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.5555 and the key resistance at 1.6235

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.7100

Support: 1.5745, 1.5700, 1.5615, 1.5555, 1.5515
Resistance: 1.5870, 1.5940, 1.5975, 1.6040, 1.6125

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 1.5870 to 1.5745 and stop loss above 1.5940 might be appropriate.

JPY

The USD/JPY pair reached the expected downside target to hit the key support for the downside channel at 88.55, seen in the image above, where we expect the pair to incline on the short term basis towards 94.00; supported by positive signs on momentum indicators. The first resistance, which may be an obstacle for the pair is at 90.30, where a breakout of this level will open the way for today's target at 91.60. This incline remains as far as 88.50 is intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 88.00 and the key resistance at 94.70

The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60

Support: 89.35, 88.50, 88.00, 87.50, 86.95
Resistance: 90.30, 90.95, 91.60, 92.10, 92.55

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair with the breach of 90.30 to 91.60 and stop loss below 89.55 might be appropriate.

CHF

The Dollar versus Swissy pair continued to surge to the upside to touch the key resistance of the minor bullish channel that is taking the pair to the upside on the short term. From the image above, we see a minor resistance level is currently the neckline for a possible bullish technical pattern, which may reverse the pair to the downside in correctional movements to reach 1.0300, before rebounding to the upside and completing the pattern by breaching the 1.0365 level and open the way towards 1.0550. This incline is valid as far as 1.0365 is intact on the four hour charts.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0000 and the key resistance at 1.0550

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.1225 remains intact with targets at 0.9600

Support: 1.0300, 1.0260, 1.0205, 1.0135, 1.0080
Resistance: 1.0365, 1.0390, 1.0450, 1.0480, 1.0550

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair from 1.0300 to 1.0450 and stop loss below 1.0205 might be appropriate.

CAD

After retesting the previously breached neckline for the bullish pattern last Friday, the pair was able to rebound from 1.0850 nearing 1.1000, as expected. Momentum indicators are showing the pair within an overbought area, which may result in a slight downside correction towards 1.0920 before rebounding back to the upside on the intraday basis targeting the 161.8% and 176.4% extensions at 1.1080 and 1.1120 respectively, which will then complete a bearish harmonic pattern with a PRZ at the above mentioned levels. This incline is valid as far as 1.0830 is intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0700 and the key resistance at 1.1220

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.1870 remains intact with targets at 1.0300

Support: 1.0920, 1.0830, 1.0765, 1.0700, 1.0655
Resistance: 1.1045, 1.1080, 1.1120, 1.1150, 1.1200

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair from 1.0920 to 1.1080 and stop loss below 1.0830 might be appropriate