Saturday, September 19, 2009
ENERGY MARKET RECAP
October Crude Oil closed down 0.64 at 71.83. This was 0.56 up from the low and 0.83 off the high.
October Heating Oil closed down 2.14 at 181.95. This was 0.17 up from the low and 2.89 off the high.
October RBOB Gasoline finished down 2.37 at 182.75, 2.59 off the high and 0.55 up from the low.
October Natural Gas finished up 0.29 at 3.75, 0.09 off the high and 0.30 up from the low.
Technical Outlook
CRUDE OIL (OCT) 09/21/2009: The upside crossover of the 9 and 18 bar moving average is a positive signal. Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The next upside target is 73.26. The next area of resistance is around 72.47 and 73.26, while 1st support hits today at 71.09 and below there at 70.49.
RBOB GAS (OCT) 09/21/2009: The close under the 40-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down. Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The close below the 1st swing support could weigh on the market. The near-term upside objective is at 186.40. The next area of resistance is around 184.32 and 186.40, while 1st support hits today at 181.18 and below there at 180.12.
HEATING OIL (OCT) 09/21/2009: Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The near-term upside objective is at 185.77. The next area of resistance is around 183.65 and 185.77, while 1st support hits today at 180.59 and below there at 179.66.
October Heating Oil closed down 2.14 at 181.95. This was 0.17 up from the low and 2.89 off the high.
October RBOB Gasoline finished down 2.37 at 182.75, 2.59 off the high and 0.55 up from the low.
October Natural Gas finished up 0.29 at 3.75, 0.09 off the high and 0.30 up from the low.
Technical Outlook
CRUDE OIL (OCT) 09/21/2009: The upside crossover of the 9 and 18 bar moving average is a positive signal. Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The next upside target is 73.26. The next area of resistance is around 72.47 and 73.26, while 1st support hits today at 71.09 and below there at 70.49.
RBOB GAS (OCT) 09/21/2009: The close under the 40-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down. Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The close below the 1st swing support could weigh on the market. The near-term upside objective is at 186.40. The next area of resistance is around 184.32 and 186.40, while 1st support hits today at 181.18 and below there at 180.12.
HEATING OIL (OCT) 09/21/2009: Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The near-term upside objective is at 185.77. The next area of resistance is around 183.65 and 185.77, while 1st support hits today at 180.59 and below there at 179.66.
PRECIOUS METALS RECAP
December Gold closed down 3.2 at 1010.3. This was 2.3 up from the low and 9.2 off the high.
December Silver finished down 0.2 at 17.065, 0.245 off the high and 0.055 up from the low.
Technical Outlook
COMEX SILVER (DEC) 09/21/2009: The daily stochastics gave a bearish indicator with a crossover down. Momentum studies trending lower from overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to reinforce lower price action. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside objective is 1661.5. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 1727.0 and 1757.5, while 1st support hits today at 1679.0 and below there at 1661.5.
COMEX GOLD (DEC) 09/21/2009: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Daily stochastics turning lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a downside break especially if near term support is penetrated. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market's close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside target is now at 999.0. The next area of resistance is around 1014.7 and 1023.1, while 1st support hits today at 1002.7 and below there at 999.0.
December Silver finished down 0.2 at 17.065, 0.245 off the high and 0.055 up from the low.
Technical Outlook
COMEX SILVER (DEC) 09/21/2009: The daily stochastics gave a bearish indicator with a crossover down. Momentum studies trending lower from overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to reinforce lower price action. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside objective is 1661.5. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 1727.0 and 1757.5, while 1st support hits today at 1679.0 and below there at 1661.5.
COMEX GOLD (DEC) 09/21/2009: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Daily stochastics turning lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a downside break especially if near term support is penetrated. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market's close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside target is now at 999.0. The next area of resistance is around 1014.7 and 1023.1, while 1st support hits today at 1002.7 and below there at 999.0.
CURRENCY MARKET RECAP
December US Dollar closed up 0.345 at 76.775. This was 0.290 up from the low and 0.155 off the high.
December Euro closed down 0.45 at 147.02. This was 0.56 up from the low and 0.42 off the high.
December Japanese Yen finished down 0.36 at 109.4, 0.52 off the high and 0.1 up from the low.
December Swiss finished down 0.21 at 97.12, 0.26 off the high and 0.42 up from the low.
December Canadian Dollar finished down 0.53 at 93.41, 0.52 off the high and 0.55 up from the low.
December British Pound closed down 2.06 at 162.41. This was 0.12 up from the low and 2.12 off the high.
Technical Outlook
JAPANESE YEN (DEC) 09/21/2009: Stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels are broken. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The market's close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside target is 108.90. The next area of resistance is around 109.74 and 110.14, while 1st support hits today at 109.12 and below there at 108.90.
EURO (DEC) 09/21/2009: Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market setup is somewhat negative with the close under the 1st swing support. The near-term upside target is at 147.96. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 147.50 and 147.96, while 1st support hits today at 146.52 and below there at 146.00.
December Euro closed down 0.45 at 147.02. This was 0.56 up from the low and 0.42 off the high.
December Japanese Yen finished down 0.36 at 109.4, 0.52 off the high and 0.1 up from the low.
December Swiss finished down 0.21 at 97.12, 0.26 off the high and 0.42 up from the low.
December Canadian Dollar finished down 0.53 at 93.41, 0.52 off the high and 0.55 up from the low.
December British Pound closed down 2.06 at 162.41. This was 0.12 up from the low and 2.12 off the high.
Technical Outlook
JAPANESE YEN (DEC) 09/21/2009: Stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels are broken. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The market's close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside target is 108.90. The next area of resistance is around 109.74 and 110.14, while 1st support hits today at 109.12 and below there at 108.90.
EURO (DEC) 09/21/2009: Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market setup is somewhat negative with the close under the 1st swing support. The near-term upside target is at 147.96. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 147.50 and 147.96, while 1st support hits today at 146.52 and below there at 146.00.
STOCK INDICES RECAP
December S&P closed down 1.6 at 1061.2. This was 2.2 up from the low and 5.8 off the high. December S&P E-Mini finished down 1.75 at 1061, 6.75 off the high and 5 up from the low.
December Dow finished down 2 at 9735, 48 off the high and equal to the low.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (DEC) 09/21/2009: Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The near-term upside objective is at 1072.09. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 1066.39 and 1072.09, while 1st support hits today at 1055.60 and below there at 1050.50.
S&P E-MINI (DEC) 09/21/2009: Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The next upside objective is 1073.18. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 1066.87 and 1073.18, while 1st support hits today at 1055.13 and below there at 1049.69.
NASDAQ (DEC) 09/21/2009: Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The near-term upside objective is at 1739.43. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 1730.12 and 1739.43, while 1st support hits today at 1712.38 and below there at 1703.94.
DOW (DEC) 09/21/2009: Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The daily closing price reversal up on the daily chart is somewhat positive. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The next upside objective is 9831. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 9810 and 9831, while 1st support hits today at 9726 and below there at 9664.
December Dow finished down 2 at 9735, 48 off the high and equal to the low.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (DEC) 09/21/2009: Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The near-term upside objective is at 1072.09. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 1066.39 and 1072.09, while 1st support hits today at 1055.60 and below there at 1050.50.
S&P E-MINI (DEC) 09/21/2009: Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The next upside objective is 1073.18. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 1066.87 and 1073.18, while 1st support hits today at 1055.13 and below there at 1049.69.
NASDAQ (DEC) 09/21/2009: Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The near-term upside objective is at 1739.43. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 1730.12 and 1739.43, while 1st support hits today at 1712.38 and below there at 1703.94.
DOW (DEC) 09/21/2009: Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The daily closing price reversal up on the daily chart is somewhat positive. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The next upside objective is 9831. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 9810 and 9831, while 1st support hits today at 9726 and below there at 9664.
BOND MARKET RECAP
December Bonds finished down 0-260 at 119-090, 0-250 off the high and 0-060 up from the low.
December 10 Yr Treasury Notes closed down 0-180 at 116-270. This was 0-040 up from the low and 0-180 off the high.
Technical Outlook
BONDS (DEC) 09/21/2009: Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The intermediate trend has turned down with the cross over back below the 18-day moving average. The market could take on a defensive posture with the daily closing price reversal down. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next downside target is 118-080. The next area of resistance is around 119-310 and 120-270, while 1st support hits today at 118-220 and below there at 118-080.
10 YR TREASURY NOTES (DEC) 09/21/2009: Stochastics trending lower at mid-range will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support levels are taken out. The intermediate trend has turned down with the cross over back below the 18-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. The swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. The next downside objective is now at 116-040. The next area of resistance is around 117-095 and 117-285, while 1st support hits today at 116-135 and below there at 116-040.
December 10 Yr Treasury Notes closed down 0-180 at 116-270. This was 0-040 up from the low and 0-180 off the high.
Technical Outlook
BONDS (DEC) 09/21/2009: Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The intermediate trend has turned down with the cross over back below the 18-day moving average. The market could take on a defensive posture with the daily closing price reversal down. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next downside target is 118-080. The next area of resistance is around 119-310 and 120-270, while 1st support hits today at 118-220 and below there at 118-080.
10 YR TREASURY NOTES (DEC) 09/21/2009: Stochastics trending lower at mid-range will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support levels are taken out. The intermediate trend has turned down with the cross over back below the 18-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. The swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. The next downside objective is now at 116-040. The next area of resistance is around 117-095 and 117-285, while 1st support hits today at 116-135 and below there at 116-040.
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