Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Statement by Secretary Timothy F. Geithner

Statement by Secretary Timothy F. Geithner to the Plenary Session
of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Annual Meetings,
Delivered by Acting Assistant Secretary Mark Sobel

On behalf of Secretary Geithner and the U.S. delegation, thank you to the people of Istanbul and our host country Turkey. It is fitting that we meet today in this great country - a land at the crossroads of history and civilization.

During the Great Depression, the global economy faced a crossroads, and it chose the path of unilateralism and inwardness. Over the last year, we faced the deepest challenge since then. Standing at another crossroads, the international community chose the path of unprecedented cooperation and multilateralism. We took decisive action to restore growth, boost employment, and repair financial systems. We mobilized nearly $1 trillion in support for emerging markets, helping to slow a serious capital drain.

The United States is doing and will do its part. We supported U.S. and global growth through our stimulus plan, restored confidence in the U.S. financial system through our stability and regulatory reforms as well as our transparent stress tests, and helped stem the loss of confidence facing emerging markets through President Obama's successful call for rapidly mobilizing $500 billion through a renewed New Arrangements to Borrow at the IMF.

We are now witnessing stabilization of the global economy and the beginnings of recovery. But we cannot be complacent. Conditions remain fragile. The international community must implement its critical agenda to sustain the recovery and help create jobs, to strengthen regulatory frameworks, and to begin preparing cooperative exit strategies. We also need to pursue additional trade liberalization, including an ambitious and balanced conclusion to the Doha Development Round.

Together, we recognize that the world cannot return to a pattern of uneven growth, characterized by an excessive reliance on a single engine of consumption-led growth, while others relied heavily on external demand. First and foremost, the responsibility for tackling these problems rests with sovereign governments, including my own.

But as we build a strong, sustained and balanced global economy, we must advance a forward-looking agenda so that the IMF and World Bank can enhance their legitimacy and update their missions to meet future challenges.

For the IMF, this means that rigorous surveillance must help us shed light on trends that could lead to the next unsustainable boom. Under the new G-20 Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth, the IMF must provide forward-looking analysis of whether the world's major countries are implementing economic policies, including exchange rate policies, which are collectively consistent with G-20 objectives. The IMF will need to be a truth-teller.

The World Bank will need to focus more on building resilience to crisis and foundations for prosperity. As the world emerges from crisis, the poorest will require strong and sustained support from the multilateral development banks. With concessional financing deploying more quickly, donors must commit to successful and timely replenishments of IDA and the African Development Fund. When considering the MDB capital requests, we must recognize the importance of maintaining the IBRD's financial soundness. As the centerpiece of the multilateral development system, the World Bank is best positioned to address challenges that require globally coordinated action. In particular, the Bank must more actively prioritize work on three emerging global priorities, agriculture and food security, support in the most fragile environments, and facilitating the transition to a green economy.

For the IMF and World Bank to be effective in these tasks, their broad membership must consider them legitimate and representative. We are delighted that the international community is now committed to achieving a 5% shift in IMF quota share toward dynamic underrepresented countries by January 2011 and the call to shift at least 3% of the Bank's voting power to developing and transition countries and the recommitment to reach an agreement by the 2010 Spring Meetings.

The past six months have plainly demonstrated the benefits of stronger Ministerial engagement in setting strategic policies and priorities at the international financial institutions. To sustain this, we must find a way to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of both the IMFC and the Development Committee. Furthermore, we need far more efficient and strategic Executive Boards, which better reflect the realities of the global economy.

In closing, the international community has rarely shared such a sense of common purpose and urgency. All of our countries – developing, emerging, or advanced – want to avoid a repeat of the worst economic crisis in decades. So let us press forward on this path of multilateralism to offer greater hope and prosperity for people in every corner of the world.

Technical Analysis for Energy Markets

Crude achieved the awaited downside move yesterday, touching the first target's levels for the bearish intraday direction at 68.20; where the 50% correction level is showing a strong stance, forcing the price to move to the upside, seen in the image above, where it is nears the complete formation of the bearish harmonized technical pattern, where a possible reversal for it is currently between 71.10 – 71.30. We expect its trading price to decline after these levels. From here, we expect a minor incline towards reversal levels and then achieve a bearish direction over a short intraday basis; where its targets begin at 69.00 and then attempts to breach 68.20, to head towards the bearish short term wave around $64.00 per barrel.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 66.20 and the key resistance at 73.15.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 47.20 remains intact with targets at 85.00.

Support: 69.85, 69.00, 68.20, 67.45, 66.50
Resistance: 71.30, 71.95, 72.50, 73.15, 73.80

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling oil at 71.30 and targeting 69.85 and stop loss above 71.95, might be appropriate.

Technical Analysis for Precious Metals

Silver

Silver also has reached the first projected technical target of 16.70, forming a bullish candlesticks structure, clearing the path for additional inclines in order to resume the harmonic [CD] leg, targeting 17.70 zones. Overbought signs that are appearing on the momentum indicators may slow down this scenario, particularly with facing 76.4% Fibonacci level. The allover structure is still bullish on the intraday basis.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 15.45 and key resistance now at 17.70.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 10.95 remains intact with targets at 18.50.

Support: 16.55, 16.42, 16.35, 16.25, 16.18
Resistance: 16.85, 16.96, 17.06, 17.15, 17.25

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying silver from 16.60 targeting 17.20 and stop loss below 16.10 might be appropriate.

Gold

After being supported around the key support level of 1002.00, gold has reached our intraday defined technical target at 1018.00-check the analysis here-. With the breakout above the detected pivotal resistance of 1009.00 while forming a long white candlestick formation above Ribbons positive crossover, we can say that the metal is on the way to resume the bullishness towards 127% Fibonacci level of the harmonic [XA] leg at 1028.00 and may extend further towards 161.8% at 1040.00 areas as seen on our provided four-hour chart. Note that Stochastic is moving inside overbought areas that may cause some kinds of correctional movements but AROON is still supporting the direction.

The trading range for today is among the key support now at 965.00 and key resistance now at 1060.00.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 820.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1044.00.

Support: 1016.00, 1011.00, 1009.00, 1006.00, 1002.00
Resistance: 1022.00, 1025.00, 1030.00, 1035.00, 1044.00

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying gold from 1016.00 targeting 1030.00 and stop loss below 1004.00 might be appropriate.

Forex Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

Current level-1.4729

EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4134 and 1.3523.

Yesterday's minor consolidation was limited above 1.4570 support area and the uptrend has been renewed, breaking above 1.4675 resistance zone. Current bias is positive for 1.4842, en route to 1.4911, with nearest support around 1.4670, followed by the crucial 1.4592.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.4675 1.4720 1.4842 1.50+
1.4564 1.4444 1.4180 1.3746

USD/JPY

Current level - 89.26

A short-term bottom has been set at 87.12 and a large consolidation is unfolding since. Trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 94.86 and 94.84.

A minor consolidation unfolds above the dynamic support at 88.82 and we think, that it precedes a break below 88.42, that will target 87.12 lows. Intraday bias is neutral and important on the upside remains 90.34.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
90.40 93.40 99.03 101.42
89.12 88.40 87.12 83.25

GBP/USD

Current level- 1.5962

The pair is in a downtrend after peaking at 1.7042. Trading is situated between the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.6454 and 1.5258.

Yesterday's low at 1.5901 was a turning point in the second part of the rise from 1.5803, so a clear break below 1.5901 is to be expected and it will initiate a massive sell-off for 1.5766, en route to 1.5352. The intraday bias is already negative with the recent break below 1.5961, so expect current rebound above 1.5937 to be corrective in nature and to give an entry point for the next leg downwards, to 1.5834.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.6024 1.6130 1.6460 1.7042
1.5801 1.5766 1.5352 1.50+

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