Monday, October 5, 2009

FX Technical Analysis

EURUSD

Comment: Testing the top of a neat little 'channel' though still capped by the 9-day moving average. Over the next week or two we shall have to allow for another downside test but the rally from the 1.4500 area Friday makes recent price action look increasingly like consolidation. Momentum is zero and the Euro is a long way from being overbought.

Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4630/1.4600; stop well below 1.4500. Short term target 1.4675/1.4700.

Direction of Trade: →

Chart Levels:

Support Resistance
1.4582 " 1.465
1.4525 1.4675*
1.4500* 1.47
1.4480* 1.4725
1.44 1.4845*

GBPUSD

Comment: Consolidating under the 9-day moving average and the sort of 'neckline' of a potential 'head-and-shoulders' top (which may well never work out and turn into a very large rectangle); above the first Fibonacci support at 1.5700. Note that the Lagging Span is holding at the bottom of a good-sized Ichimoku 'cloud' and price action last week might be a small 'double bottom' (but then again in might also be 'triangle' consolidation. Expect more very cautious hesitation today with momentum staying bearish while below 1.6200.

Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6000, adding to 1.5925; stop well below 1.5700. Short term target 1.6125.

Direction of Trade: →

Chart Levels:

Support Resistance
1.5917 " 1.6025
1.5875 1.6065
1.5805 1.61
1.577 1.6127
1.5700* 1.62

USDJPY

Comment: 'Triangle' consolidation under trendline resistance and the 9-day moving average and despite a pair of fairly impressive 'spike lows' to almost the lowest level this year, prices should eventually move lower. The US dollar is not oversold and momentum is just bearish.

Strategy: Attempt shorts at 89.85/90.00; stop above 90.65. Short term target 89.25/89.00 maybe 88.50.

Direction of Trade: →

Chart Levels:

Support Resistance
89.21 " 89.98
89.15 90.18
87.97* 90.42*
87.5 90.9
87.10/87.00** 91.65

EURJPY

Comment: Bouncing from trendline support after touching some of this year's lower levels. Expect more nervous consolidation above here today and maybe all week. Note that the Euro is no longer oversold against the Yen and momentum is just bearish.

Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 131.55; stop above 132.25. Short term target 130.00 then 129.00.

Direction of Trade: →

Chart Levels:

Support Resistance
131.00 " 131.65
130.5 131.8
129.84 132.04*
129.65 132.25
129.00* 133

Mizuho Corporate Bank

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