Friday, September 25, 2009

Energy Futures Commentary

NOVEMBER CRUDE OIL

November crude oil closed down $3.05 at $65.92 a barrel yesterday. Prices closed near the session low again yesterday and hit a fresh nine-week low. Serious near-term chart damage was inflicted yesterday as prices saw a big and bearish downside 'breakout' from the recent trading range at higher price levels. Crude bears now have the near-term technical advantage. The next downside price objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the July low of $61.38. The next upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above psychological resistance at $70.00 a barrel. First resistance is seen at $66.00 and then at $67.00. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $65.60 and then at $65.00.


Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

NOVEMBER HEATING OIL

November heating oil closed down 774 points at $1.7130 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday and hit a fresh nine-week low. Prices also saw a bearish downside technical 'breakout' yesterday. Bears have regained the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $1.8500. Bears' next downside price objective is producing a close below solid technical support at the July low of $1.6000. First resistance lies at $1.7356 and then at $1.7500. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $1.7025 and then at $1.6750.

NOVEMBER GASOLINE

November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 744 points at $1.6467 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh nine-week low yesterday. Bears have the near-term technical advantage and gained more downside momentum yesterday. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $1.7500. Bears' next downside price objective is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $1.5026. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $1.6369 and then at $1.6000. First resistance is seen at $1.6750 and then at $1.7000.

NOVEMBER NATURAL GAS

November natural gas closed up 14.0 cents at $4.894 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high again yesterday and hit a fresh six-week high. Prices are in a two-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls gained upside technical momentum yesterday, but have more work to do to suggest prices can continue to trend higher. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of $5.133. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.40. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $4.919 and then at $5.00. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $4.665 and then at $4.50.

Jim Wyckoff

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