VnForex: Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Gold fell further to as low as 1026.9 but was supported above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 931.3 to 1072 at 1018.3 and recovered. An intraday low should be in place and initial bias is neutral this week. While some more sideway trading might still be seen, short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1018.3 fibonacci support holds. Break of 1072 high will bring rally resumption to 1100 psychological level next. On the downside, however, decisive break of 1018.3 will indicate that recent rise has completed and deeper decline should be seen to 985.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 985.0) instead.

In the bigger picture, the long term up trend in Gold has resumed after taking out 1033.9 resistance firmly. Rise from 681 would likely develop into another set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 first and then 100% projection at 1258 next. On the downside, though, break of 985.5 support will dampen this bullish view and will turn focus back to 931.3 support instead.

In the long term picture, as discussed before, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. The strong break of 1033.9 resistance affirms this case and should pave the way to 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 and then 100% projection at 1460 level. However, break of 931.3 support will indicate that medium term rise from 681 has possibly completed. This will also open up the case that long term consolidation from 1033.9 is not completed yet and has just started the third falling leg.

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart