Monday, October 5, 2009

Closings of Legacy Securities Public -Private Investment Funds

Treasury Department Announces Additional Initial
Closings of Legacy Securities Public -Private Investment Funds

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced three additional initial closings of Public-Private Investment Funds (PPIFs) established under the Legacy Securities Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP). AllianceBernstein, LP and its sub-advisors Greenfield Partners, LLC and Rialto Capital Management, LLC; BlackRock, Inc.; and Wellington Management Company, LLP have completed initial closings, each with at least $500 million of committed equity capital from private investors bringing the total number of initial closings completed to five and total committed equity and debt capital to $12.27 billion.

Small, minority-, and women-owned businesses that are partnering with the fund managers that have completed initial closings include:

  • Advent Capital Management, LLC
  • Altura Capital Group, LLC
  • Utendahl Capital Management

"The PPIP continues to grow," said Herb Allison, Assistant Secretary for Financial Stability, "Private capital is being drawn into the market for legacy securities and taxpayers are being given a chance to share in the profits."

Treasury expects that the remaining initial closings for the other PPIFs will occur throughout October. Following an initial closing, each PPIF will have the opportunity for two more closings over the following six months to receive matching Treasury equity and debt financing, with a total Treasury equity and debt investment in all PPIFs equal to $30 billion ($40 billion including private investor capital). Treasury will be providing updates as additional PPIF closings occur.

Statement by Secretary Timothy F. Geithner

Statement by Secretary Timothy F. Geithner at the Joint World Bank-IMF Development Committee Meeting

Since we last met six months ago, the economic crisis has begun to ease. Private capital flows are recovering and global growth is resuming. But even as early signs of recovery emerge globally, there is significant risk that the world's poorest will continue to feel the effects of the crisis long after the rest of the world has recovered. As a result of the global economic downturn, an additional 90 million people risk being forced into extreme poverty, jeopardizing the hard won progress toward meeting the Millennium Development Goals. It is critical that we respond directly to the needs of the most vulnerable at this time. The international financial institutions are central to this effort.

Over the past year, the World Bank, the regional development banks, and the IMF have played a vital role in cushioning the impact of this crisis on poor and middle income countries. Lending programs have been robust and timely, providing critically needed resources as other sources of revenues have diminished. Collectively, the development banks have increased their lending targets by over $100 billion above planned pre-crisis levels, fulfilling their London commitment of at least $100 billion in new resources.

In their crisis response, the multilateral development banks have once again demonstrated their central importance to the developing world. As such, we also believe that they must be at the center of global efforts to address the development challenges of the 21st century. The Obama Administration is strongly committed to a renewed focus on multilateralism in the delivery of development assistance and will be working to ensure that the multilateral development banks (MDBs) have adequate resources, sound policies, and good governance, so that they are well positioned to meet current and future development needs.

Looking forward, we believe that the World Bank, working with the regional development banks, should give greater attention to challenges that are global in nature and require globally coordinated action. We see four particular challenges on food security, climate change, private sector led growth and meeting the needs of the poorest.

  • On food security, we welcome a strong role for the World Bank in furthering the implementation of commitments made in L'Aquila and look forward to working with the Bank in developing a multi-donor trust fund that supports comprehensive, country-led agriculture development plans. The fund should help coordinate financing and implementation of country plans and complement the activities of bilateral donors, with a focus on results and development effectiveness.
  • On climate change, efficient and effective financing must be integrated with development planning, policies and investments. This implies a critical role for the World Bank as we scale up resources. In turn, climate change will be part of a broader architecture that accommodates financing from a variety of public and private sector channels as well as expanded and improved carbon markets. To succeed in this effort, we need to encourage low income countries to pursue cleaner development strategies through renewable energy, as is being piloted by the Scaling up Renewable Energy Program.
  • Supporting private sector led growth strategies is vital to achieving sustained growth and enhancing opportunities for the poorest in developing countries. The MDBs should focus on innovative financing mechanisms for small business creation, expanded access to finance for the poor, and technical assistance focused on legal and regulatory impediments.
  • A top priority for all of the MDBs must be support for the poorest, which requires that the MDBs focus on the most vulnerable populations both in their concessional lending and in their support for countries with access to the hard loan windows. It also means they should increase their overall support for their concessional windows through internal resources, when possible.

The success of the World Bank in meeting each of these global challenges will depend critically on the institution's global legitimacy. For this reason, the United States remains committed to supporting governance reforms that will strengthen the credibility and legitimacy of the international financial institutions by recognizing the increasing importance of emerging market countries in the global economy. The G20 Summit in Pittsburgh marked a major breakthrough on this front for the World Bank, setting the stage for a successful outcome by the time of the Spring Meetings.

In Pittsburgh, we also reaffirmed our commitment to ensure that the MDBs and concessional windows are adequately funded. Replenishment negotiations for IDA and the African Development Fund will soon get underway, and we view the timely and successful conclusion of these discussions as a critical component of the Leaders' commitment to avoid a disruption in financing for the concessional facilities.

In addition, several MDBs, including the World Bank, are seeking new infusions of capital for their hard loan windows. We are carefully reviewing the financial capacity of all the MDBs and expect to complete their capital reviews by the first half of 2010. Because donor countries are facing severe fiscal constraints at home, we must be fully confident that additional capital for the MDBs' hard loan windows is needed and that any new resources will be managed well and used effectively. To this end, we will be seeking critical institutional reforms in any consideration of additional resources.

Sound resource management requires that the MDBs commit to rigorous budgetary discipline to ensure that loan pricing is linked to administrative costs. Budget processes should be designed to ensure that resource allocations reflect institutional priorities. The MDBs should also commit to strengthening transparency, accountability, and good corporate governance, as well as build capacity to innovate and achieve demonstrable results.

We look forward to working with the World Bank and Regional Development Banks to implement these critical reforms and to making progress toward meeting these challenges in the months ahead through support for an ambitious development agenda.

FX Technical Analysis

EURUSD

Comment: Testing the top of a neat little 'channel' though still capped by the 9-day moving average. Over the next week or two we shall have to allow for another downside test but the rally from the 1.4500 area Friday makes recent price action look increasingly like consolidation. Momentum is zero and the Euro is a long way from being overbought.

Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4630/1.4600; stop well below 1.4500. Short term target 1.4675/1.4700.

Direction of Trade: →

Chart Levels:

Support Resistance
1.4582 " 1.465
1.4525 1.4675*
1.4500* 1.47
1.4480* 1.4725
1.44 1.4845*

GBPUSD

Comment: Consolidating under the 9-day moving average and the sort of 'neckline' of a potential 'head-and-shoulders' top (which may well never work out and turn into a very large rectangle); above the first Fibonacci support at 1.5700. Note that the Lagging Span is holding at the bottom of a good-sized Ichimoku 'cloud' and price action last week might be a small 'double bottom' (but then again in might also be 'triangle' consolidation. Expect more very cautious hesitation today with momentum staying bearish while below 1.6200.

Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6000, adding to 1.5925; stop well below 1.5700. Short term target 1.6125.

Direction of Trade: →

Chart Levels:

Support Resistance
1.5917 " 1.6025
1.5875 1.6065
1.5805 1.61
1.577 1.6127
1.5700* 1.62

USDJPY

Comment: 'Triangle' consolidation under trendline resistance and the 9-day moving average and despite a pair of fairly impressive 'spike lows' to almost the lowest level this year, prices should eventually move lower. The US dollar is not oversold and momentum is just bearish.

Strategy: Attempt shorts at 89.85/90.00; stop above 90.65. Short term target 89.25/89.00 maybe 88.50.

Direction of Trade: →

Chart Levels:

Support Resistance
89.21 " 89.98
89.15 90.18
87.97* 90.42*
87.5 90.9
87.10/87.00** 91.65

EURJPY

Comment: Bouncing from trendline support after touching some of this year's lower levels. Expect more nervous consolidation above here today and maybe all week. Note that the Euro is no longer oversold against the Yen and momentum is just bearish.

Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 131.55; stop above 132.25. Short term target 130.00 then 129.00.

Direction of Trade: →

Chart Levels:

Support Resistance
131.00 " 131.65
130.5 131.8
129.84 132.04*
129.65 132.25
129.00* 133

Mizuho Corporate Bank

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD had a volatile but indecisive market on Friday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.4479 but found support at trendline support (orange), bounced to the upside, topped at 1.4646 and closed at 1.4574. The fact that the trendline support still hold should keep the bullish scenario intact. On the upside price seems to find resistance around minor trendline resistance (red). These trendlines is the key area at this phase and we need trendline break to see clearer direction. Break above the trendline resistance should trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.4720 and 1.4850 area. Break below the trendline support would have a bigger impact on longer term perspective, testing 1.4440 even 1.4280 and the bullish scenario could be in serious threat. Immediate resistance at 1.4650/70. Immediate support at 1.4575 followed by 1.4440.

GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD also had indecisive movement on Friday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.5808 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 1.5944. On h4 chart below we can see that after break below the trendline support (orange, now become resistance) and bottomed at 1.5805 price retreated higher back at the trendline. I think this is a normal movement and as long as price stay below the trendline and 1.6000 area, I prefer a downside scenario. However break above the trendline and consistent move above 1.6000 area should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.6113 area. Immediate support at 1.5905. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum.

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 88.59 but whipsawed to the upside and closed at 89.79. At the same time, the bearish continuation failure followed by an important technical event as price slipper above the trendline resistance (blue). Although it's too early for a bullish view, it's clear that the bearish scenario is now in critical phase as bearish pressure seems to begin to lose some momentum. Consistent move above the trendline should trigger further bullish momentum targeting at least 90.40 area. However if price reject to move consistently above the trendline, the bearish scenario should remains intact. Immediate support at 89.30 followed by 88.50.

USDCHF Outlook

The USDCHF made a significant technical movement on Friday as price violated the bullish channel to the downside. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting at least 1.0250 but market volatility lately makes my medium term outlook remains neutral. The best place to put a short position is waiting for price to retreat higher near the bullish channel lower line and we see rejection to move above 1.0380 resistance area with a tight stop loss if price go back inside the bullish channel.

EURJPY Outlook

The EURJPY failed to continue it's bearish momentum on Friday. On h4 chart below we can see that price slipped below 129.79, bottomed at 129.03 but whipsawed to the upside, closed at 130.86 and traded higher early today in Asian session around 131.37 area. This bearish failure should trigger bullish momentum re-testing the trendline resistance area (orange) but I still prefer a bearish scenario so I will stay out from the market for now. Immediate support at 130.60. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum back towards 129.03. Initial resistance at 131.80 - 132.00 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum challenging the trendline resistance and potentially be a serious threat to my bearish outlook.

GBPJPY Outlook

The GBPJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, break below 141.90, bottomed at 140.79 but whipsawed to the upside, closed at 143.16 and peaked at 149.93 early today in Asian session. On h4 chart below we can see that price is now struggling around the minor trendline resistance (blue). Break above that trendline should trigger further bullish momentum challenging 146.73 area. The bias is bullish in nearest term but I still prefer a bearish scenario so I will keep out from the market for now. Immediate resistance at 144.50 area. Initial support at 142.75 followed by 142.00 area

AUDUSD Outlook

The AUDUSD attempted to push lower on Friday, hit my first short target at 0.8580 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 0.8647. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 0.8787 area but I think I will stay out from the market now as I don't really see a clear direction and my risk-reward ratio looks bad a this phase. Break above 0.8787 should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 0.8858 area. Immediate support at 0.8650. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 0.8567 (Friday's low).

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