Friday, October 9, 2009

Technical Analysis for Energy Markets

Crude achieved a decline yesterday, slightly nearing the awaited support level at 69.00 and pushing to the upside to touch the key resistance level 72.50 (the previously breached main support level for the upside direction); where crude closed below resistance level for the bearish channel, which organizes the trading of the short term bearish waves, shown in the image above, - in yellow-. From here, we still see that crude is heading to the downside over an intraday basis and initially targeting 68.85. As long as the daily close is below 72.75, chances of achieving this downside direction will prevail; where the stochastic supports the bearish trend for today.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 67.00 and the key resistance at 74.80.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 47.20 remains intact with targets at 85.00.

Support: 70.45, 69.85, 68.85, 67.45, 66.50
Resistance: 71.30, 72.75, 73.15, 73.80, 74.60

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling oil at 71.30 and targeting 68.85 and stop loss above 72.75, might be appropriate

Technical Analysis for Precious Metals

Silver

After the sharp inclines that approached the projected technical target of yesterday's report, the bearish candlestick formation confirmed the first potential reversal zone-D- of the bearish harmonic structure as seen on the above four-hour chart. Moving freely below 127% Fibonacci level has signaled an intraday bearish scenario, supported by the negative signs appearing on the momentum indicators. Note that a breakout below 17.28 will accelerate the negative anticipation.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 16.65 and key resistance now at 18.50.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 10.95 remains intact with targets at 18.50.

Support: 17.50, 17.43, 17.35, 17.28, 17.15
Resistance: 17.65, 17.72, 17.83, 17.90, 18.00

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling silver from 17.65 targeting 17.10 and stop loss above 18.10 might be appropriate.

Gold

After reaching our detected technical target of yesterday's harmonic bullishness at 1062 areas-check the analysis here- , the short term Elliott sequence came back into focus. We see on the provided four-hour chart that five impulsive waves might have been formed. Thus; the [A-B-C] correction is under way, targeting the psychological level of 1000.00 but 1030.00 is in need for re-testing first to confirm the count. RSI 14 supports the intraday bearish outlook while AROON is preparing for a trend change signal.

The trading range for today is among the key support now at 1006.00 and key resistance now at 1074.00.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 820.00 remains intact with targets at 1074.00.

Support: 1042.00, 1035.00, 1030.00, 1025.00, 1022.00
Resistance: 1049.00, 1053.00, 1058.00, 1062.00, 1074.00

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling gold from 1049.00 targeting 1033.00 and stop loss above 1062.00 might be appropriate

Forex Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

Current level-1.4721

EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4134 and 1.3523.

The rise from 1.4650 peaked at 1.4817 and a massive sell-off followed, reaching a temporary low at 1.4703. The overall bias remains positive with a crucial level at 1.4650, so we will expect an uptrend to emerge from current levels, towards 1.4842, en route to 1.4967. Intraday bias is still negative with a resistance around 1.4756 and crucial level at 1.4779.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.4756 1.50+ 1.4696 1.4444
1.4842 1.6040 1.4650 1.3746

USD/JPY

Current level - 88.26

A short-term bottom has been set at 87.12 and a large consolidation is unfolding since. Trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 94.86 and 94.84.

As expected, the pair initiated a rise towards 89.13 and probably after one more test in the 89.40 area a change in the direction is to be expected, for the last leg downwards, to 87.12. The overall bias remains negative with a crucial resistance at 90.40.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
89.50 93.40 88.67 87.12
90.40 101.45 88.01 83.53

GBP/USD

Current level- 1.6047

The pair is in a downtrend after peaking at 1.7042. Trading is situated between the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.6454 and 1.5258.

Recent test of the 1.6130 resistance failed and the pair is in a minor downtrend for 1.5970. Break below that level will target 1.5855, which is the trigger point for a massive sell-off towards 1.5352. Nearest resistance comes at 1.6061.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.6061 1.6130 1.5970 1.5855
--- 1.6468 1.5890 1.5352

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