ENERGY MARKET RECAP

October Crude Oil closed down 0.39 at 68.90. This was 0.88 up from the low and 0.61 off the high.

October Heating Oil closed up 1.32 at 174.40. This was 3.69 up from the low and 0.18 off the high.

October RBOB Gasoline finished down 1.57 at 174.41, 1.48 off the high and 1.80 up from the low.

October Natural Gas finished up 0.44 at 3.40, 0.00 off the high and 0.49 up from the low.



Technical Outlook
CRUDE OIL (OCT) 09/15/2009: A crossover down in the daily stochastics is a bearish signal. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside objective is 67.32. The next area of resistance is around 69.59 and 70.29, while 1st support hits today at 68.11 and below there at 67.32.

RBOB GAS (OCT) 09/15/2009: Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The market's close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is now at 171.05. The next area of resistance is around 176.05 and 177.61, while 1st support hits today at 172.77 and below there at 171.05.

HEATING OIL (OCT) 09/15/2009: Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The upside daily closing price reversal gives the market a bullish tilt. The market's close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is 169.66. The next area of resistance is around 176.33 and 177.39, while 1st support hits today at 172.47 and below there at 169.66.

U.S. Market Update

Dow -10 S&P -2.3 NASDAQ +2

US equity indices have been volatile in early trading as traders balanced some mixed economic figures against some worrisome master trust data from the banks. August retail sales rose by the largest amount in more than three years, completely reversing July's very modest decline, spurred by gains that went beyond just the expected increases of auto sales due to Cash for Clunkers. August PPI data showed wholesale prices rose 1.7%, more than double the 0.8% rise economists expected (PPI was -0.9% in July). Both months were heavily affected by energy prices. The Empire State Manufacturing data was also sharply higher than consensus. Leading private-sector economists dueled over the shape of the emerging recovery earlier this morning. Goldman Sachs' Chief Economist Jim O'Neill said the global recovery is "beyond a V shape," and insisted the recovery will positively surprise markets. Later Morgan Stanley's Asia Chief Economist Stephen Roach said the weak consumer recovery in the US guarantees there will not be a V-shaped recovery. Front-month NYMEX crude is up very slightly over levels from the last two days, trading around $69.50, after OPEC's September report left the cartel's 2009-10 demand outlook unchanged from last month. Treasury prices remain a bit lower as the PPI data offered little in the way of support. The long bond yields sit just below 4.25% after the NY Fed purchased just over $2B in longer dated maturities.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Treasury may sell its stake in Citigroup beginning as early as October. According to the piece, the Treasury would take six to eight months to sell off its 34% stake. The Treasury has declined to comment on the piece, and shares of Citi are down 5% in the early going. The leading credit card issuers have been disclosing their August Master Trust data this morning, with notable increases in net charge offs reported by JP Morgan (10.07% v 9.02% m/m), Bank of America (14.54% v 13.82% m/m) and Discover (9.16% v 8.43% m/m). Charge offs declined at Capital One.

Electronics retailer Best Buy missed bottom line estimates slightly while beating top-line targets by a hair. The company also raises its FY10 guidance range on improving customer traffic. BBY fell more than 4% before recovering somewhat. Supermarket name Kroger missed top- and bottom-line estimates and trimmed its FY09 oulook, citing changes in customer behavior and the overall economic environment. Shares of KR are down a 8%, while competitor SWY is down 4%. Multiple analysts have raised their ratings on Las Vegas Sands thanks to better earnings strength at the firm's Macau operations. Shares of LVS were up as much as 6% this morning, along with Macau rival MGM, while WYNN was up 3%. Shares of all three have lost some of this ground.

Leading US steelmaker Nucor offered dire guidance for its Q3, saying it expects a sizable loss in the quarter that would be three or four times the expected amount. The company said it sees little improvement in real demand and warned uncertainty in the US economy remains high, and said the unexpected loss stems from high-cost inputs. Illinois Tool Works raised its Q3 guidance range while also warning it has seen a significant decrease in operating revenues over last three months. Monsanto reiterated its FY10 guidance given just last week.

In currencies, the greenback maintained a constructive tone during the NY morning after US retail sales beat expectations, and despite the firmer PPI data. Note that the regional Empire State headline was also sharply higher than the consensus. Such data readings typically raises the risk appetite sentiment but dealers noting that a 1.4560 option expiration has acted like a magnet for the price action. USD did try to move lower post data, but the 1.4630 area was reported as attractive to some quasi-official names offering euros, which capped the upside momentum for the time being.

Sterling was soft in the NY morning on follow-through selling from earlier comments by the BoE's King on the deposit rate outlook. GBP/USD moved below the 1.6450 level while EUR/GBP tested 0.8870. USD/ JPY was firmer in the NY morning but met some decent offers above the 91.50 level. The price action appeared to a bit hectic around that level, with some short-term prop players "scrambling" to cover prior JPY longs. Canada's Murray outlined various factors that were supporting its economic recovery. He did note that the economy was supported by confidence, but added that the strong CAD was a headwind. USD/CAD was hovering around the 1.08 area, with CAD firmer by 30 pips from its opening level in Asia.

Trade The News Staff
Trade The News, Inc.

BOND MARKET RECAP

December Bonds finished down 0-210 at 119-270, 0-210 off the high and 0-030 up from the low.

December 10 Yr Treasury Notes closed down 0-140 at 117-175. This was 0-015 up from the low and 0-120 off the high.

Technical Outlook
BONDS (DEC) 09/15/2009: A crossover down in the daily stochastics is a bearish signal. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The market's close below the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. The next downside objective is 118-270. The next area of resistance is around 120-100 and 121-020, while 1st support hits today at 119-070 and below there at 118-270.

10 YR TREASURY NOTES (DEC) 09/15/2009: The daily stochastics gave a bearish indicator with a crossover down. Momentum studies are trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing support. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The close below the 1st swing support could weigh on the market. The next downside objective is now at 116-290. Short-term indicators on the defensive. Consider selling an intraday bounce. The next area of resistance is around 117-255 and 118-105, while 1st support hits today at 117-030 and below there at116-290.

CURRENCY MARKET RECAP

December US Dollar closed unchanged at 76.890. This was 0.115 up from the low and 0.455 off the high.

December Euro closed up 0.32 at 146.24. This was 1.1 up from the low and 0.28 off the high.

December Japanese Yen finished down 0.42 at 110.06, 0.85 off the high and 0.27 up from the low.

December Swiss finished up 0.25 at 96.76, 0.15 off the high and 0.76 up from the low.

December Canadian Dollar finished down 0.52 at 92.36, 0.55 off the high and 0.83 up from the low.

December British Pound closed down 1.17 at 165.69. This was 0.5 up from the low and 1.11 off the high.

Technical Outlook
JAPANESE YEN (DEC) 09/15/2009: Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next upside target is 111.33. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 110.63 and 111.33, while 1st support hits today at 109.51 and below there at 109.09.

EURO (DEC) 09/15/2009: Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat bullish. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next upside target is 147.36. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 146.82 and 147.36, while 1st support hits today at 145.44 and below there at 144.60.

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP

December Gold closed down 5.3 at 1001.1. This was 2.8 up from the low and 3.7 off the high.

December Silver finished down 0.077 at 16.623, 0.072 off the high and 0.128 up from the low.


Technical Outlook
COMEX SILVER (DEC) 09/15/2009: Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The near-term upside objective is at 1711.1. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 1685.2 and 1711.1, while 1st support hits today at 1632.8 and below there at 1606.2.

COMEX GOLD (DEC) 09/15/2009: Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The near-term upside objective is at 1018.2. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 1009.2 and 1018.2, while 1st support hits today at 992.8 and below there at 985.4.

STOCK INDICES RECAP

December S&P closed up 6.5 at 1043.8. This was 14.5 up from the low and 1.5 off the high.  December S&P E-Mini finished up 6.25 at 1043.5, 1.75 off the high and 
18 up from the low. 

December Dow finished up 21 at 9552, 13 off the high and 87 up from the low.  

Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (DEC) 09/15/2009: The upside crossover (9 above 18) of the moving averages suggests a developing short-term uptrend. Momentum studies are trending higher
but have entered overbought levels. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The daily closing price reversal up on
the daily chart is somewhat positive. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next upside objective is 1057.00. The market
is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 1051.90 and 1057.00, while 1st support hits today at 1035.10
and below there at 1023.40.

S&P E-MINI (DEC) 09/15/2009: The upside crossover (9 above 18) of the moving averages suggests a developing short-term uptrend. Daily stochastics have risen
into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend
remains positive. The daily closing price reversal up is a positive indicator that could support higher prices. Market positioning is positive with the close
over the 1st swing resistance. The near-term upside objective is at 1059.18. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of
resistance is around 1053.37 and 1059.18, while 1st support hits today at 1033.63 and below there at 1019.69.
NASDAQ (DEC) 09/15/2009: Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's short-term
trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The daily closing price reversal up is a positive indicator that could support higher prices. With
the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The near-term upside objective is at 1708.00. The 9-day RSI over 70
indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 1700.00 and 1708.00, while 1st support hits today at 1676.00 and below
there at 1660.00.

DOW (DEC) 09/15/2009: Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over
the 9-bar moving average. The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the market on the defensive. The near-term upside target is at 9572. The next area
of resistance is around 9515 and 9572, while 1st support hits today at 9419 and below there at 9380.