Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

EURO

The Euro versus Dollar pair corrected to the downside to build a base at 1.4655 before rebounding to the upside and near our suggested target at 1.4765. Trading within a minor bullish channel as seen in the above image is continuing the short term uptrend where it is expected to face a resistance at 1.4875. The upside trend remains as far as 1.4650 is intact with targets at 1.4875 and 1.5000

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4330 and the key resistance at 1.4985

The general trend is currently to the downside as far as 1.4725 remains intact with targets at 1.2120

Support: 1.4705, 1.4650, 1.4610, 1.4565, 1.4515
Resistance: 1.4720, 1.4765, 1.4810, 1.4875, 1.4910

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair from 1.4705 to 1.4875 and stop loss below 1.4610 might be appropriate.

GBP

The Cable continues its attempts to breach the pivot resistance at 1.6515 as we see in the above image where we see the formation of an ascending triangle supporting our overview to continue the short term uptrend. Initial targets are at 1.6740 as far as 1.6375 is intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.6260 and the key resistance at 1.6740

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.7100

Support: 1.6425, 1.6375, 1.6330, 1.6250, 1.6180
Resistance: 1.6515, 1.6595, 1.6630, 1.6660, 1.6740

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair with the breach of 1.6515 to 1.6660 and stop loss below1.6425 might be appropriate

JPY

The minor support at 90.15 was able to halt further declines for the pair yesterday to rebound towards the 38.2% correction at 91.35 once again. The stochastic indicator is nearing overbought areas where our outlook remains to the downside on the short term with targets at 89.00 only if 92.10 remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 88.40 and the key resistance at 94.70

The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60

Support: 90.90, 90.15, 89.35, 89.00, 88.40
Resistance: 91.35, 91.80, 92.10, 92.60, 93.30

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 91.35 to 90.15 and stop loss above 92.10 might be appropriate.

CHF

The Dollar versus Swissy pair is gradually declining within a minor descending channel supporting the short term downtrend. Trading below the minor support at 1.0325 yesterday makes us believe the pair is to continue declining today targeting 1.0000 as far as 1.0400 remains intact whereas 1.0550 remaining intact is vital for the short term downtrend to continue.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0000 and the key resistance at 1.0700

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.1225 remains intact with targets at 0.9600

Support: 1.0285, 1.0220, 1.0135, 1.0080, 1.0000
Resistance: 1.0325, 1.0400, 1.0480, 1.0550, 1.0610

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 1.0325 to 1.0220 and stop loss above 1.0400 might be appropriate.

CAD

Trading for the Dollar versus Loonie pair remains below 1.0670 yesterday adding more support for the decline on the short term where we expect the pair is to target 1.0500 initially before heading towards 1.0000. Momentum indicators show the pair being oversold which may result in mixed trading. However as far as 1.0910 remains intact, the short term trend is to the downside.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0425 and the key resistance at 1.1100

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.1870 remains intact with targets at 1.0300

Support: 1.0625, 1.0565, 1.0500, 1.0420, 1.0350
Resistance: 1.0670, 1.0715, 1.0785, 1.0830, 1.0885

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 1.0670 to 1.0565 and stop loss above 1.0715 might be appropriate.

Ecpulse

Foreign Exchange Market Commentary

EUR/USD closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that an important top has been posted.

USD/JPY closed higher on Wednesday but remains below the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing. Profit taking tempered early session gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

GBP/USD posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bullish outlook in the market. If it renews this month's rally, August's high crossing is the next upside target.

USD/CHF closed higher on Wednesday and above the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends this summer's rally, the 2008 high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

HY Markets
http://www.hymarkets.com

Market Morning Briefing

EQUITIES

The Dow (9791.71) and the Nasdaq (2133.15) rose 1.12% and 1.45% respectively yesterday. The Dow has now risen in 8 out of 9 consecutive days led by strong industrial production and faces Resistance near 9850. It has been rising despite caution by experts that the markets are due for correction. We shall see if this Resistance causes the correction to happen which looks like long overdue.

The Asian indices, too, have been trading higher. The Nikkei (10391.32) is up 1.17%, Hang Seng (21795.30) is up 1.83%. Shanghai (3047.53), too, has recovered from yesterday's loss and is once again testing the Resistance at 3050. The Sensex (16677.04) has broken above an important Resistance at 16500 yesterday and looks bullish even as the markets await a significant correction. There's Resistance next at 17000 on Sensex.

COMMODITIES

Crude (72.42) has risen sharply yesterday breaking above 72 following the better than expected US Crude inventory data that reported a fall of 4.7 millon barrels against the expected 3 millon barrels. If the current upside momentum continues we might see a rise towards 74.50-75.00 in the coming days.

Gold (1017.80) is continuing its upmove and posted a record high closing yesterday (1019.20). Immediate Resistance is seen at 1020. If the current upside momentum continues a break above 1020 might take it up towards the significant Trendline Resistance at 1030.

CURRENCIES

Last night the Dollar just about survived a rout, with the Dollar-Index touching a low of 76.15 but not breaking below 76.00. The current level is 76.25, which is no great comfort though for the Dollar.

The Euro (1.4725) continues to move up with buyers available on dips. Dollar-Yen (91.08) has recovered slightly after recording a fresh low near 90.15 this month. It may take time, but the danger of a break below 90.00 still remains. Euro-Yen (134.10) has shot up as a result of the rise in both EUR-USD and USD-JPY.

The Pound (1.6495) has been quiet yesterday (and today) after having fallen earlier in the week. Dollar-Swiss (1.0315) remains weak and may well see 1.0260 today. The Aussie (0.8752) has seen a strong surge yesterday and remains bullish for the longer term.

Asian currencies like the Won (1205) and the Singapore Dollar (1.1417) continue to strengthen and still have some juice left in them. Dollar-Rupee had closed near 48.23/24 yesterday and might see 48.10-00 today.

INTEREST RATES

3M USD LIBOR was set at 0.29%. Yields on US Treasuries have remained largely unchanged. There has been a relatively sharp decine in yields for the near end of the curve. The yields for 3M Treasuries have fallen 4 bps to be quoted at 0.09% while the 10Y and 30Y yields have remained unchanged at 3.46% and 4.26% respectively.

Yield curve on JGBs have over the last several weeks been turning steeper as the near end of the curve is in a downtrend and the farther end is in the uptrend. Interesting to note that yields for different maturities are trending in opposite directions.

Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.4736 and closed at 1.4707. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair still trapped in rising wedge area. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.4800 area. However, the rising wedge on h4 chart and CCI divergence on daily chart I showed you yesterday still give valid bearish reversal/warning, so I will keep stay out for now. If the rising wedge violated to the upside, that would be a bearish reversal scenario failure and would give me a bullish set up. At this phase, potential place to put a long position at is the around the rising wedge lower line with very tight stop loss below it. Short positions is not recommended unless we really have a valid rising wedge breakdown. Immediate support at 1.4640 (yesterday's low). Break below that area could be considered as a breakdown to the rising wedge and could lead us back to 1.4570 or even 1.4446 area

GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair still trapped between 38.2% - 50% Fibo retracement of 1.6113 - 1.6740. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and I think we are still in no trading zone now. Be patient and do not rush jump into the market. The key levels at this phase is 1.6400 support and 1.6580 resistance. Break below 1.6400 should trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.6200 while break above 1.6580 should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.6740 area.

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday bottomed at 90.11 but further bearish momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 90.89. On h1 chart below we can see that the 90.20 area which connected by the red horizontal line has been a strong support so far. On the upside, the trendline resistance and 91.80 area are my key level resistance area at this phase. As long as the pair stay below that area I still prefer a downside scenario. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing the trendline resistance area but I will stay out for now as the bearish scenario remains intact. A violation to the trendline resistance should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 91.80 area

USDCHF Outlook

The USDCHF made a moderate bearish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that after breakdown below range area of 1.0715 - 1.0527 area, the pair keep moving lower. Although we have bearish exhaustion warning indicated by 2 inverted hammer I showed you yesterday, the fact is we do not see significant bullish correction yet. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.0250/10 area. CCI in oversold area and heading down on h4 chart so watch out for potential upside rebound testing 1.0420 resistance area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

EURJPY Outlook

The EURJPY had a volatile market yesterday, bottomed at 132.45 but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 134.01, closed at 133.68 and traded higher around 134.10 at the time I wrote this comment. A broader look at h4 chart below we can see that the bullish scenario remains intact as the trendline support did a good job preventing further bearish pressure. The bias is bullish in nearest term but we seem to have good resistance around 134.35 area as key resistance level at this phase. Break above that area should set up a bullish view targeting 135.10 even 136.00 area. Immediate support at 133.50. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone.

GBPJPY Outlook

The GBPJPY also had a volatile market yesterday, bottomed at 148.60 but whipsawed to the upside, closed higher at 149.78 and traded higher around 150.20 at the time I wrote this comment. On h4 chart below we can see that this was a case of false breakdown below 149.02. Usually a false breakdown lead to significant bullish momentum. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing the trendline resistance (red) area. Breakout above that trendline resistance should trigger further bullish momentum testing 152.30 area. Immediate support at 149.65 area.

AUDUSD Outlook

The AUDUSD made a significant bullish momentum yesterday, breakout from the range area (see h1 chart below), topped at 0.8749 and closed at 0.8726. For me this is nothing but a bullish continuation confirmation. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 0.8813 area (August 21 2008 high). Immediate support at 0.8720. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone but bullish scenario should remains intact.

FX Instructor LLC
www.fxinstructor.com

ENERGY MARKET RECAP

October Crude Oil closed up 1.39 at 72.32. This was 2.18 up from the low and 0.24 off the high.

October Heating Oil closed up 3.94 at 181.95. This was 6.61 up from the low and 0.85 off the high.

October RBOB Gasoline finished up 5.38 at 184.30, 0.70 off the high and 7.66 up from the low.

October Natural Gas finished up 0.45 at 3.77, 0.03 off the high and 0.41 up from the low.



Technical Outlook
CRUDE OIL (OCT) 09/17/2009: Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range,
which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. Market positioning is positive with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next upside target is 74.26. The next area of resistance is around 73.54 and 74.26, while 1st support hits today at 71.12 and below there at 69.42.

RBOB GAS (OCT) 09/17/2009: The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The intermediate trend could be turning up with the close back above the 18-day moving average. The market setup is upportive for early gains with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next upside objective is 190.96. The next area of resistance is around 188.56 and 190.96, while 1st support hits today at 180.20 and below there at 174.24.

HEATING OIL (OCT) 09/17/2009: The cross over and close above the 60-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has turned positive. Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average indicates the intermediate-term trend has turned up. Market positioning is positive with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next upside target is 187.99. The next area of resistance is around 185.73 and 187.99, while 1st support hits today at 178.27 and below there at 173.08.

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP

December Gold closed up 13.9 at 1020.2. This was 4.7 up from the low and 2.1 off the high.

December Silver finished up 0.43 at 17.43, 0.15 off the high and 0.205 up from the low.



Technical Outlook
COMEX SILVER (DEC) 09/17/2009: Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next upside target is 1791.3. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 1770.2 and 1791.3, while 1st support hits today at 1715.8 and below there at 1682.4.

COMEX GOLD (DEC) 09/17/2009: Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory
which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next upside target is 1032.9. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 1027.1 and 1032.9, while 1st support hits today at 1011.7 and below there at 1002.1.

CURRENCY MARKET RECAP

December US Dollar closed down 0.355 at 76.430. This was 0.055 up from the low and 0.385 off the high.

December Euro closed up 0.68 at 147.26. This was 0.85 up from the low and 0.11 off the high.

December Japanese Yen finished up 0.35 at 110.18, 0.86 off the high and 0.67 up from the low.

December Swiss finished up 0.43 at 97.11, 0.07 off the high and 0.6 up from the low.

December Canadian Dollar finished up 0.61 at 93.78, 0.18 off the high and 0.63 up from the low.

December British Pound closed up 0.09 at 164.99. This was 0.69 up from the low and 0.35 off the high.

Technical Outlook
JAPANESE YEN (DEC) 09/17/2009: Momentum studies are trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing support. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The next downside objective is now at 108.64. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 110.81 and 111.69, while 1st support hits today at 109.29 and below there at 108.64.

EURO (DEC) 09/17/2009: Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next upside target is 148.03. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 147.74 and 148.03, while 1st support hits today at 146.78 and below there at 146.12.

STOCK INDICES RECAP

December S&P closed up 19.1 at 1065. This was 17 up from the low and -1 off the high. December S&P E-Mini finished up 17.75 at 1063.75, 0.25 off the high and 19.25 up from the low.

December Dow finished up 117 at 9720, 20 off the high and 100 up from the low.


Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (DEC) 09/17/2009: Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in
overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The market's close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication. The next upside objective is 1078.79. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 1073.89 and 1078.79, while 1st support hits today at 1054.30 and below there at 1039.60.

S&P E-MINI (DEC) 09/17/2009: Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. There could be more upside follow through since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The near-term upside target is at 1078.50. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 1073.50 and 1078.50, while 1st support hits today at 1054.00 and below there at 1039.50.

NASDAQ (DEC) 09/17/2009: Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. There could be more upside follow through since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The next upside objective is 1744.06. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 1733.37 and 1744.06, while 1st support hits today at 1702.63 and below there at 1682.57.

DOW (DEC) 09/17/2009: The rally brought the market to a new contract high. Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The gap upmove on the day session chart is a bullish indicator for trend. There could be more upside follow through since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The near-term upside objective is at 9713. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 9698 and 9713, while 1st support hits today at 9636 and below there at 9590.

BOND MARKET RECAP

December Bonds finished down 0-090 at 118-290, 1-040 off the high and 0-160 up from the low.

December 10 Yr Treasury Notes closed down 0-095 at 116-285. This was 0-075 up from the low and 0-270 off the high.

Technical Outlook
BONDS (DEC) 09/17/2009: Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside objective is now at 117-150. The next area of resistance is around 119-240 and 120-220, while 1st support hits today at 118-050 and below there at 117-150.

10 YR TREASURY NOTES (DEC) 09/17/2009: Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The close below
the 18-day moving average is an indication the intermediate-term trend has turned down. A negative signal was given by the outside day down. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside target is now at 115-305. The next area of resistance is around 117-125 and 118-030, while 1st support hits today at 116-105 and below there at 115-305.