Thursday, September 24, 2009

Weekly Market Outlook

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart :

Uptrend continuation since blue channel breakout has reached first profit point @ 1.4650.

While price remain above main pink channel, we may expect uptrend continuation towards 1.4850 and 1.4920 first. Two buy zones are validated for now : The 1.4510/60 support area backed by EMA18, and the daily lows congestion/support zone at 1.4650/80.

While above 1.4510 main support, recent uptrend remain intact. A break and daily close below this level may lead to a pullback to 1.4440 minor support and 1.4320 channel low.

No rebound on daily supports will lead to a test of main blue channel @ 1.4230, broken earlier in September

EUR/USD 4-Hours Chart :

Ascending wedge in place since September 8th is still active. Partial rotation has been seen at 1.4840 top and we await now a test of the lower trendline. Breakout lower (probability 82%) will lead to 1.4470 minimum calculated objective.

An upward channel has been formed since and price shows some respect at 1.4840 top. We may expect a test of channel lows around 1.4640/ Sustained break may lead to a 145 pips fall minimum calculated objective.

Three buy zones are validated for now : 1.4730 main support backed by old channel break and marubozu candle base. Below, weekly lows, ascending wedge baseline and support at 1.4610 may reject prices.

Break lower of such support will lead to a corrective move to 1.4470 - 1.4520 main support zone where a rejection higher is highly expected.

GBP / USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart :

Since Mid-August pullback into main range (1.61 - 1.66) both cluster support/resistance have been respected and generated strong rejections.

Falling wedge formation (blue) is still intact and last test of lower trendline rejected price. Main upside objective remain at 1.6620/60.

Daily close back inside minor pink channel may lead to further upmove, but price must hold 1.6330/40 support. A daily close above 1.65 broken channel is needed to validate recent upmove continuation.

Currently one buy zone has been validated on the 1.6130 / 1.6230 range low / channel low. Minor buying support is at 1.6330.

Sell zone at 1.6610/60 remain intact for now.

GBP/USD 4-Hours Chart :

50% fib. retracement of fall from August high and downward channel trendline have strongly rejected price to main blue/pink channel lows, witch was the main profit target.

Since, strong rebound has been seen towards the main sell zone witch remain valid at time of writing.

Price currently consolidates above downward channel. Sustained break of 38.2% fib. Level at 1.6550 may lead to another test of 50% fib. main resistance at 1.6550.

Pullback inside downward channel may lead to a fall towards minor trendline, fib support & EMA at 1.6320/50. Main target remain Sell zone at 1.6450.

Break below 1.6320 minor support exposes price to fall back towards main buy zone.

USD / JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart :

Pullback into main bearish channel validated mid-August has been validated since ST corrective channel downside break occurred. Profit point on alternative bearish channel (dotted pink) has been hit and price since consolidates.

No chart parttern are clearly identified for now even if we expect a wedge formation to come.

The first Sell zone is still the 92.10/50 area where Bollinger bands and ST EMA have rejected prices. 90.20/50 remain the main profit point.

While above 90.00 psychological level, small bids can be done on Bands / Channel low tests.

Break and daily close above 92.50 fib. level will lead to a rise towards 93.50 - 94.30 cluster resistance where rejection is highly expected.

USD/JPY 4-Hours Chart :

A larger corrective move has been since last week, but overall downtrend remain intact. EMA 100 clearly rejected last upside attempt, and price now evolve in a corrective upward channel (pink).

We are currently expecting range moves to continue in the near-term.

90.20/70 act as a large support zone but we expect the channel low at 90.90 to be strong enough to reject price higher for a test of Bollinger bands highs where consolidation is expected.

First profit zone comes at 92.00/30 but we expect price to be able to test main resistance zone at 92.50/75 materialized channel high and EMA 200.

Sustained break of this resistance zone will warns of a tend change, while rejection by channel high will validate downtrend continuation.

WFXAdvisor

No comments:

Post a Comment