Friday, September 4, 2009

04-Sep FX Report

Good morning from 'Cold-Summer' Hamburg and welcome to the Daily FX Comment. We are still expecting more details from the ECB policy makers, giving signs how the measures for the future of the Euro-Zone could be. Have a nice weekend and a great trading day.

Markets review

The EUR dipped for a second week against the USD, after the ECB kept unchanged at a record low of 1 percent and on expectation President Jean-Claude Trichet will give more signs that the central bank will refrain from raising interest rates. The EUR dropped against 11 of the 16 major currencies as President Trichet said yesterday that the region's economic recovery will be 'bumpy' and indicated policy makers are in no rush to withdraw emergency stimulus measures. Trichet and board members Lucas Papademos, Juergen Stark and Jose-Manuel Gonzalez Paramo will speak at the ECB and its Watchers conference in Frankfurt today. The EUR/USD fell for a second week after touching a low at 1.4178 with an opening at 1.4298 on Monday. The EUR fell for the first week since the beginning of August against the GBP. It pulled back as it reached a high at 0.8835, which was close to the highest level since June 5th.

The USD fell close to a one-week low versus the GBP before a U.S. report may show that employers eliminated fewer jobs last month, according to a survey. The GBP climbed for a third day against the USD. Yesterday it reached a high of 1.6413, which is the highest since August 25th.

Technical analysis

USD/CHF

Since the middle of August, the USD/CHF has been moving inside a horizontal trend channel. Inside the channel, the pair entered the Fibonacci fan from the end of July. It trades currently on the middle line of the Fibonacci fan and it looks like it is on the way to pull back towards the upper line of the channel. If the market goes through the middle line of the fan, it could reach the resistance level at around 1.070.

GBP/USD

During the past thirty days, the GBP/USD has been trading in a downward trend channel. After falling to the first Pivot Weekly Support (S1) at 1.6101 it pulled back and touched the upper line of the channel. At the moment, the market trades on the middle pivot point. If it will fall under the middle pivot point, it would be a short signal and the trend may follow towards the lower line of the channel

Pivot Points - Daily FX Support and Resistance Levels

Daily Calendar & Key FX Events

Varengold Bank

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