Monday, October 19, 2009

Technical Analysis for Precious Metals

Silver

The duplicated bearish harmonic formation has forced the metal to breach the pivotal support level of 17.50 as seen on the provided four-hour chart. The candlestick formation is still negative under the negative pressure of SMA 20 -currently valued at 17.60-. Hence we think that the downside movements are to continue, targeting 16.70 zones which represent 61.8% Fibonacci level of our suggested CD leg. Stochastic supports our intraday bearish overview. Note that the correction may extend towards the broken support level before resuming the downside rally.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 16.45 and key resistance now at 18.50.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 12.45 remains intact with targets at 19.40.

Support: 17.28, 17.16, 17.05, 17.00, 16.96
Resistance: 17.45, 17.52, 17.60, 17.70, 17.76

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling silver from 17.45 targeting 16.80 and stop loss above 18.00 might be appropriate

Gold

The strength of the potential reversal zone of the bearish harmonic pattern along with breaching the minor upside channel has forced the metal to move downwards sharply as seen on the above four-hour chart. Now, the possibility of forming a classical head and shoulders top pattern is in progress as we think that it is forming the right shoulder. We can't ignore the Elliott count which shows that the 4th wave is underway for the time being, targeting 1016.00 and may extend further towards 984.00 zones. For all those reasons, the intraday outlook is to the downside.

The trading range for today is among the key support now at 1006.00 and key resistance now at 1100.00.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 865.00 remains intact with targets at 1129.00.

Support: 1045.00, 1042.00, 1037.00, 1030.00, 1022.00
Resistance: 1055.00, 1058.00, 1062.00, 1066.00, 1070.00

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling gold from 1055.00 targeting 1037.00 and stop loss above 1070.00 might be appropriate.

Technical Analysis for Energy Markets

Crude continued to push upwards within a bullish channel, organizing the short term bullish direction, seen in the image above. However, it managed to near the key resistance for this channel, which came inline with momentum indicators entering overbought areas; thus, making us expect to achieve some bearish correction targeting 77.60 – 61.8% Fibonacci for Friday's incline– then rebound to achieve a bullish intraday direction that supports the short term upside move, where its targets start at $80.00 per barrel to then witness some more upside movements towards $85.00. The expected upside direction for today will prevail if 76.20 remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 73.30 and the key resistance at 82.50.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 47.20 remains intact with targets at 85.00.

Support: 77.60, 76.75, 76.00, 74.75, 73.30
Resistance: 78.90, 79.50, 80.40, 81.65, 82.50

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying oil at 77.60 and targeting 78.90 and stop loss below 76.75, might be appropriate.